As concern about economic inequality rises to the top of the issue agenda, it is instructive to note that the upturn in poverty of recent years has not been accompanied by a rise in violent crime. To the contrary, since 2008, unemployment and homicides have been inversely related.
Is this a puzzling anomaly? Most people assume that hard times cause crime spikes. They reason, plausibly enough, that financial pressures — as a consequence of, say, becoming unemployed — lead to stress, anger and violence.
Many criminologists agree. The "strain theory" of crime holds that high or rising unemployment and poverty rates may be indicators of increasingly unequal opportunities, and that periods of sharply unequal opportunity are likely to produce more crime.
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What explains this puzzling lack of consistency? The answer seems to be that crimes of violence are unique; unlike property crimes, they are not economically motivated. Murder and its junior partner, assault, for instance, are mainly precipitated by such things as anger, sexual jealousy, perceived insults or threats, and long-standing personal quarrels, and they are frequently facilitated by disinhibitors such as alcohol or drugs. These factors, it appears, are unaffected by economic downturns or upswings.
Do hard times spark more crime? - latimes.com
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