Democrats will be benefiting from a favorable landscape, with Republicans defending 24 seats (many of them in blue territory) while Democrats will be defending only 10. To leverage that advantage into control of the Senate, however, Democrats need to net at least four seats (five, if Republicans win the presidency). That requires sweeping out blue-state freshman Republicans in states such as Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while also defeating a couple of brand-name senators, such as Rob Portman or Marco Rubio, in perennial swing states.
So to kick off the new year, here is National Journal's preview of the seven most compelling Senate races in 2016, with the most pressing question that will determine the race's outcome listed below:
- Nevada: Gov. Brian Sandoval v. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid
- Wisconsin: Russ Feingold, Senator Ron Johnson and Representative Ron Kind
- Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey
- Illinois: Senator Mark Kirk v. Representatives. Tammy Duckworth, Bill Foster or Cheri Bustos
- North Carolina: Senator Richard Burr v. Kay Hagan
- Florida: Marco Rubio v. Representative Patrick Murphy, Representative Gwen Graham or Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz
- Arizona: John McCain v. Representatives Matt Salmon and David Schweikert
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